KUOW - Hike Minotaur Lake

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Updated Tuesday 9-11-2012

Hike is just east of Stevens Pass.

View of Minotaur and Labyrinth Mountain in background

Green Trails Maps- One of the 10 essentials
Check out Green Trails Maps for directions. Map for this week's trip is 144 . Click link below for complete list of maps.http:// http://greentrailsmaps.com/maps/index_Map_wa/
Photo below is on trail the way up
Photo below is view of the lake
Photo below is view from the top of Labyrinth Mountain of Glacier Peak
Photo below is view from the top of Labyrinth Mountain of Minotaur Lake
Driving directions: From Everett head east on US 2 for 65 miles to Stevens Pass. Continue east for another 4 miles. onto Smith Brook Road (Forest Road 6700). (From Leavenworth reach the turnoff in 30 miles.) Follow FR 6700 and go past Smithbrook trailhead and then past Nason Ridge Trailhead. At about 4 3/4 miles from Stevens there is a sharp left fork and take this and this is still FS 6700. Than at 6.8 miles from Stevens Pass turn left onto FR 6704. Proceed for 0.9 mile to the road's end and trailhead (elev. 3800 ft).
Trail stats: To lake only 1.60 miles and 1750 feet. That is steep!!! But worth it. Lake at 5500 feet. Top or Labyrinth is at 6376 a scramble.Bring map,compass and GPS as the directions are the best estimates that we have

KUOW Hike of the Week- Grand Park

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Updated Tuesday 9-18-2012
Grand Park Mt. Rainier National Park hike via short cutPhoto below view from the edge of Grand Park of Mt. Rainier
Green Trails Maps- One of the 10 essentials
Check out Green Trails Maps for directions. Map for this week's trip is 269S . Click link below for complete list of maps.http:// http://greentrailsmaps.com/maps/index_Map_wa/
Most of the photos below from Maria Lamarca Anderson

Photo below is Lake Eleanor
Photo below is Grand Park- 2 miles of meadows
Photo below is lunch break in the meadow
Photo below is Michael Fagin taking a nap
Photo below is Maria dancing in the meadow
Photo below is of meadow and Mt. Rainier
Driving directions: Drive state Route 410 about 24 miles east of Enumclaw and just past the viewpoint of Mount Rainier turn right onto Forest Service Road No. 73. Drive 10 miles to sign that says “Eleanor Creek.” There is not a trailhead sign but park on the right and you will see a boot path on the left. Walk a short distance and you will see sign that you have entered the National Park.Trail stats: 7 miles roundtrip and about 1500 foot elevation gain. You can go slightly further if you like.Please bring map-compass-GPS as these directions are our best estimates.
Check trails before you go, lots of trails closed due to fires. Biggest impact East Cascades.http:// http://inciweb.org/unit/closures/4984/ >

KUOW Hike of the Week Kelly Butte

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Updated Tuesday 9-25-2012
Visit a restored Lookout that has great views of Mt. Rainier on a clear day. The old lookout is called Kelly Butte and is located off of Hwy 410.
The dry pattern should continue and it has been dry: From Meteorologist Nick Eckstein “Most consecutive days on record with 0.01" or less rainfall at Sea-Tac: . 64 days (July 23 - September 24, 2012) *Still ongoing; Prior record was 58 days.

Thanks Dennis Long for photosPhoto below was taken in summer view from top of Mt. Rainier
Check out Green Trails Maps for directions. Map for this week's trip is 238 & 239 . Click link below for complete list of maps.http:// http://greentrailsmaps.com/maps/index_Map_wa/


Photo below is hiker on her way to the LookoutPhoto below is lookout
Photo below is inside lookout
Driving Directions: From State Route 410 drive 2.3 miles east of the town of Greenwater and turn onto Forest Service (FS) road 70 and drive 8.5 miles east to FS 7030. Turn left onto FS 7030 and follow it 8.2 miles and park here and then walk about 0.75 miles to trailhead.
Trail Stats: 2.6 miles round trip with about a 900 foot elevation gain.Bring map-compass-GPS as our directions are the best estimates.

Weather Extended WA Cascades

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Updated 9-25-2012
Forecast models continue the pattern of a ridge of high pressure over our region between now and October 9. The ridge might briefly break down to bring the chance of a few showers, at times however that will brief. Main message is above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall. See map below which is average position of ridge at the 500 mb level (18,000 feet)

KUOW Hike- Melakwa Lake

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Updated 10-2-2012

Great hike near Snoq Pass and just west of the pass. Great hike rain or shine.
Photo below is one of the waterfalls
Green Trails Maps- One of the 10 essentials
Check out Green Trails Maps for directions. Map for this week's trip is 207 . Click link below for complete list of maps.http:// http://greentrailsmaps.com/maps/index_Map_wa/

Photo below is river crossing- during hot summer day many folks would be in the water.Photo below is fall colors
Photo below- you will find happy hikers on the trail
Photo below is Melakwa Lake
Driving Directions:From Seattle drive east on I-90 to exit 47 . Turn left over the overpass and proceed to a  junction. Turn right and travel 0.25 mile to Denny Creek Road (Forest Road 58). Turn left and drive 2.5 miles, turning left on the paved road just after the Denny Creek Campground. The trailhead is at the road's endTrail Stats: 9 miles roundtrip and 2300 foot gainPlease bring map-compass-GPS as our directions are the best estimates

The Benefits of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

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Although there is a lot of media coverage of the damage and destruction accompanying tropical storms and hurricanes, such storms can also have important benefits.

For example, landfalling tropical storms can be an important source of water, water that can lessen droughts and recharge underground aquifers. 

For example, take tropical storm Isaac.  As many of you know, there has been a major drought in the mid-section of the nation, as illustrated by the graphic below:


Severe drought extends from northern Louisiana, through Missouri and Iowa, into Illinois and Indian.  And west into the Great Plains.  The Mississippi River has been running very low, with serious impacts on marine transportation, and the effects on agriculture have been profound.

The latest forecast models indicate that Isaac will bring soaking rain though much of this drought region.  For example, here is the predicted cumulative rainfall through Sunday at 11 AM PDT from the National Weather Service GFS model.  Note that a band of 4-10 inches extends through much of the drought zone.  The impact of this rain will be substantial and positive.

In fact, the moisture from Isaac will continue into the Northeast, damping down the dry conditions over upstate NY (see precip totals through late Tuesday):


The benefits of tropical storms and hurricanes doesn't end with rainfall.  It turns out the such storms can help maintain and build barrier beaches, such as those that line the East Coast.   Orrin H. Pilkey, James B. Duke Professor Emeritus of Geology at the Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences at Duke, noted that "Barrier islands need hurricanes for their survival, especially at times of rising sea levels such as now. It's during hurricanes that islands get higher and wider. From a purely natural standpoint hurricanes are a blessing for islands, even though they're a curse for people who live there." 

Hurricanes and tropical storms produce overwash of sand, and without that the islands get skinnier and skinnier and might disappear as sea level rises.

Overwash During Tropical Storms Can Help Maintain Barrier Islands

Most of the damage during hurricanes is along the coastal zone due to storm surge and associated flooding.   Too many people and structures are located along the coast and put themselves at risk.  To protect themselves, all kinds of geoengineering approaches are installed (e.g., jetties), many of which cause more problems then they solve.

The Driest August In Seattle History (and more to come)

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I didn't want to mention this, worrying I might jinx it, but it is clear that August 2012 will the driest in Seattle history. So far we have had a trace--which means a sprinkle that is less than .01 inches. (The National Weather Service defines measurable rain as rain of .01 inches or more.)   The previous record was in 1974 when .01 inches had fallen.

The other record we working on is the longest stretch of dry days----for which the record is 51 days.
 Right now we are at 38 days...which I believe is something like the 7th longest dry spell.   But it is clear that we have at least 4-7 days of no rain ahead, so we will surely get into the mid-forties.

One of my favorite forecasting tool is from the output of the North American Ensemble Forecasting System (NAEFS), which combines the ensemble forecasts of the U.S. and Canadian forecasting efforts.  Remember, an ensemble is when we run the models many times to get an idea of the uncertainty and probabilities in a forecast.   Combining two ensembles is even better than using one!

So here is the output from NAEFS (keep in mind this is all in metric).  Temperatures are moderate (highs around 20C--68F), but then warm well into the 70s and low 80s, as a major ridge builds in next week).

But look at precipitation in the second panel.  Nothing for the next week...so we should get at least to a 45 day dry streak.  We will be in the top five at that point.   Within striking distance.

 Finally, today and this weekend we have some weak troughs over the area, bringing some morning low clouds and temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.  Fine for outdoor activities.  As the ridge revs up this week, highs will rise in the mid to upper 70s, perhaps 80s in some locations.  My tomatoes are very, very happy.

The only issue will be wildfires.  There will be no lightning, so that won't initiate them.  But the landscape of the region is very dry.  Consider the MODIS satellite imagery from yesterday:  many fires (and lots of smoke) over Idaho, and several fires over CA.