Another Major Storm for the Northeast U.S.

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Another major cyclone will strike the northeast U.S. next week.   As with hurricane Sandy, the European Center model picked up on this threat first, followed several days later by the American GFS model.   Today (Saturday) there are both generally on the same page, with a strong Nor'easter moving up the coast on Wednesday and Thursday, with strong winds, heavy coastal rain, and inland snow.

Let me be clear, this storm will not be as intense a storm as Sandy and will not be a hurricane.  Rather, it will be an extratropical storm driven by horizontal temperature variations.  But it will be capable of producing strong (40-50 kt) winds and flow that can push water inland over vulnerable areas.  It will me a major storm.

Lets turn first to European Center model, which did so well during Sandy, and which generally has superior verification to the U.S. GFS.  Each of these forecast maps show sea level pressure (in hPa or mb) and relative humidity near the surface (2m).  At 10 PM PST Wednesday, we find a strong low off of Maryland, with very strong pressure differences (gradient) along the coast.  There would be powerful easterly onshore winds across coastal NJ and in LI Sound with this pattern.  Central pressure perhaps 978 hPa.


The low is unfortunately slow moving.  Twelve hours later (10 PST), the low was off New Jersey, with a central pressure a bit less than 984 hPA. (Remember Sandy was 946 hPa at landfall!). 


7PM Thursday the low is just SE of the east end of Long Island.


What about winds?  Here are the predictions for near-surface winds at 7 PM Wednesday.  Some sustained winds reaching 50 kts, with higher gusts.  This is serious stuff.  Strong enough to down trees and capable of creating a modest storm surge.


 What about the U.S. GFS model?  Here is the forecast for Wednesday at 10 AM from the model run started at 5 AM Saturday. Deep low a bit more offshore and faster to move northward than the European model.

 And the windfield is also threatening.


This is a major shift for the U.S. GFS model, which had the low way offshore yesterday:

GFS forecast started 18z Nov 2, 147 hrs (valid Thursday, 1 PM PST)

As I have noted many times in the past, one should not look only at the high-resolution forecasts, but should study the ensembles to evaluate the uncertainty in the forecast.  This figure shows the high resolution European forecast at 4 AM PST Thursday on the right and the MEAN (or average) of the ensembles (many forecasts at somewhat lesser resolution) on the left (both blue lines).  The shading in both is a measure of uncertainty.  The ensemble mean has a low center that is broader and centered a bit offshore of the high-res prediction.  The shows there is some uncertainty in the position and intensity of the low, but clearly most of the ensemble are going for a coastal cyclone. 


The ensemble of the GFS models runs, show below (starting and ending at exactly the same times), is very different, with ensemble mean off of New England, with lots of uncertainty to the west.
 So, the bottom line is that both the deterministic and ensemble prediction systems of the U.S. NCEP model center and the European Center are now forecast a strong cyclone over the NE U.S..  The potential for strong winds are considerable.  With cool air inland, there is a good chance for major snow away from the coast.  The European Center model had been calling for this solution for day, while the GFS model, initially taking the low center offshore, is now producing a forecast more similar to the European model.

      The issue of the relative skill of the U.S. and European models has garnered a lot of media attention this week, and I will return to this critical subject in a future blog.  As a sample, here is a graphic on the NBC nightly news on Friday night (white is the actual path).


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I will be giving a talk: Global Warming Over the Pacific Northwest, Separating Facts from Hype, at the Mountaineers in Seattle at 7 PM on Thursday at the Mountaineer's facility in Seattle (Magnuson Park). Open to the public ($5 contribution for non-members). For more information, go here. Will talk about Sandy's implications as well.

KUOW Hike- Sawyer Mountain

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Updated 10-18-2012

This is an easy hike with great views and the trail is located west of Stevens Pass. Do it soon before fall colors fade.
ALso note there are several inches of snow on the ground near top so good boots and poles would help.
All photos from Karen Sykes


Photo below of Mt. Daniel from Sawyer Mountain
Check out Green Trails Maps for directions. Map for this week's trip is 175 and 176. Click here for complete list of maps.
Photo below great fall colors
Photo below 2 hikers enjoy colors
Photo below is more colors
Driving Directions: From Seattle drive US 2 east just past Skykomish and turn right onto Foss River Road (Forest Road 68). Continue for 3.6 miles and then turn left onto FR 6830. Go 6.9 miles and bear right onto FR Spur 310, and after 1.4 miles reach the trailhead.Trail Stats: Hike about 2 to 2.25 miles and go to unmarked trail on your left. This goes up to the top. Total miles is 3 one way and 1200 foot gain to 5500 foot level.Please bring map-compass-GPS. The directions are the best estimates.

For information on the extended winter Outlook, click here.

KUOW Hike- PCT towards Kendall Katwalk

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Updated 10-23-2012
With the new snow it will be hard to make it to the Katwalk but there some open views of the nearby peaks and forest. Also with the new snow good boots and trekking poles would be needed. Hike as far as you are comfortable in the snow. You might also want to bring some other foot gear for traction (see below). You can always just hike on the Commonwealth Basin trail which stays lower and has less snow.
Photo below by Dennis Long some lingering fall colors. Photo was taken last week and now more snow is on the ground.
Check out Green Trails Maps for directions. Map for this week's trip is 207. Click here for complete list of maps.
Photo below is by Dennis Long 4 inches of new snow but this was taken last week and now more snow is on the ground 10 inches.
Photo below mountains starting to get snow, before you get to Katwalk. Photo Dennis Long
Photo below is view of peaks near Snoq Pass before you get to Katwalk.
Photo below is view at Katwalk looking towards Kendall Peak. Photo taken last week and now more snow on the ground.
Driving directions: From Seattle drive I-90 to exit 52 and at the the exit ramp, turn left (north) and cross under the freeway. In about 100 yards, turn right onto a dirt road leading into the PCT trailhead.Trail Stats: 11 miles roundtrip, 2700 foot gain high point 5400 feet. Also at 2.5 miles take the right fork to Pacific Crest Trail.Winter here good footing important
Bring plenty of extra warm clothing in your pack! It is winter in the mountains!Please bring map-compass-GPS directions are the best estimates.

KUOW Hike- Packwood Lake

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Update Tuesday 10-30-2012
Prefect hike rain or shine and you can still drive to this trailhead but get there soon before the winter snows come. This is south of Mt. Rainier off Highway 12 near town of Packwood.View below is from Packwood Lake towards Johnson Mt
Check out Green Trails Maps for directions. Map for this week's trip is 302. Click here for complete list of maps.
Photo below is view of Mt. Rainier from the trail
Photo below is hiking in the forest
Photo below is at lake and old guard station
Photo below this is a very old guard station
Photo below is view of Mt. Rainier from trail at times
Driving directions: From Packwood, follow U.S. Highway 12 to the east end of town and turn south-east onto Forest Road 1262 and continue for 6 miles to the trailhead parking lot. You can always call the Gifford Pinchot National Forest Randle office for road updates 360-497-1100
Trail stats: Roundtrip 10 miles with 600 foot gain and high point of 3200 feet. Please take map-compass-GPS as the trail information is out best estimate.

KUOW Hike- of the Week- Trio of hikes

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Updated 11-6-2012
We have a trio of areas to hike. All near the Hood Canal bridge and a surprisingly short time to get there. Title can be two ports and one fort.Port Gamble-Port Ludlow- Fort Flagler.

Photo below is view from the Edmonds/Kingston ferry as you pull into Kingston- view of the Olympics
Check out Green Trails Maps for directions. Click here for complete list of maps.
First stop is Port Gamble



Photo entering Port Gamble- First of three hiking areas
Historic homes in Port Gamble
Photo below is from walk near the bay
Photo below is on the Uplands trails
Photo below is pond along the Uplands Trail
Second of three hiking areas- Port Ludlow Photo below is waterfalls hike
Photo below is of Beach Loop hike
Third of three hiking areas Fort Flagler. Photo below is Deer eating lunchbut not using the table or the grill
Photo below is walk along the beach
Photo below is walk down to the beach
Directions Port Gamble:From Seattle go to the Edmond Ferry to Kingston. From Kingston drive on Highway 104 West and drive 8 miles and to get to Uplands trailhead  which is on the left side of the find and turn left. There is a sign (Sign says Uplands Trail) at the road that has a open gate. This turnoff to the road is just before MP 17 which is about 1/8 before the town of Port Gamble..
Trails stats: There many trails that hook up the Upland Trail so you can hike as long or as short as you likeDirections Port Ludlow  From Port Gamble drive 8 miles on Washington 104 West and go across Hood Canal Bridge. Then turn right on Beaver Rd (Washington 19). Drive 1.6 miles. Then turn right on Oak Bay Road and drive 1.9 miles and turn right on Heron Road and good .4 miles to arrive at Resort at Port Ludlow.
Trail stats: Beach Loop hike is right next to the resort and it is .5 mile. For waterfalls trail this is .5 from the resort, near Cheveron gas station. This is also a .5 mile loop.
Directions to Fort Flagler From Resort at Port Ludlow drive north on Oak Bay road for 7.8 miles and then right on Flagger Road (Washington 116) and go 2.8 miles this same road then veers to the left and go north for 5 miles and arrive at park.
Trail stats. Many trails to do. There is the intertrive trail which is a .5 mile loop and this is the first trail on the right after you enter the park. Another trail is the Bluff Trail which is 1.5 miles hike. To get to trail drive main road in the park to a sign that says camp sites 1-47 on the left. Park here. Walk across the road to see a dirt road and the start of the hike.

After hike stop at The Fireside for happy hour snacks ( 4 to 6 pm Daily)

The Faucet Turns On

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This year we have experienced one of the most profound late summer/early fall dry spells and it is not ending in a subtle way.  The rain is coming back with an abrupt and powerful transition, bringing particularly heavy amounts over the Olympics, north Cascades, and the mountains of Vancouver Island.

As you know, we have had virtually no rainfall over the region since late July, resulting in many drought records at locations on both sides of the Cascades.   Now take a look at the forecast predicted by the UW WRF model for the 72 hours ending at 5 AM on Tuesday (both regional and WA views, click to get a larger image).  In the Olympics, north Cascades, and southwest BC terrain (particularly Vancouver Is) amounts reach 5-10 inches, with a few higher values on the windward slopes.  Wow.   Although rainshadowed by the Cascades, even eastern Washington gets significant rain.  Sequim, Port Townsend, and nearby will receive less rain, being in the Olympic rainshadow. 

At this point, the hydrologists at the National Weather Service are not going for any flooding, since the rivers are starting out so low and land is bone dry, but one drainage is predicted to hit about 90% of bankfull...the infamous Skokomish River:  That river is extremely flood prone due to logging.


 The reason for this abrupt change in weather is a major shift in the large scale atmospheric flow pattern.  Let me show you the upper level pattern (500hPa--around 18,000 ft) average over five days centered on last Friday at 5 PM.  The black lines are the heights of this pressure surface and the winds parallel the black lines (ignore the colors!). Huge ridge over the northeastern Pacific.  Where the lines are packed together the winds would be strong..the jet stream..and that was heading into Alaska.  Wet times in Alaska.

 Now lets look at the same fields centered tomorrow (Sunday) at 5 PM.  See the difference?  The ridge is gone and now the jet stream is heading right into us...and the jet stream brings the storms.  And the rain.

Well, what about the upcoming week?  Here is the same upper level plot centered on Wednesday afternoon. That pesky jet stream is here to stay for a while and our weather is returning to normal.


Good for our water bills, good for our forests and street trees, and good for those tired of the pressure of thinking you needed to be recreating in the mountains or bike paths. You can balance your checkbook now.

Finally, rain is not the only thing coming back...strong winds will as well.  But these winds will be localized:  along the coast and over the waters of NW Washington.  Here is a WRF forecast of near-surface sustained wind speed for Sunday at 11 AM.  No big deal over Seattle.

And if you are desperate for sun, it will be available today and much of tomorrow in eastern WA.

Washington Cascades- Extended Weather

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Updated 10-10-2012
Forecast models are starting to indicate a major shift as we move away from the very dry pattern of a ridge of high pressure that has been over our region for the last several months will finally shifts out of our region. We go to a westerly moist zonal flow at least for the next several weeks. With this pattern precipitation will be above normal with temperatures close to normal conditions. The map below (500 mb) confirms this pattern westerly flow that is set up off the West Coast through October 23.