KOUW Hike of the Week- Spray Park

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Updated Tuesday 8-21-2012

Hike is Mt. Rainier National Park. Flowers are still abundant and so is Mt. Rainier view.
All photos are from Nick Eckstein.

Photo below is view of Mr. Rainier from Spray Park
Green Trails Maps- One of the 10 essentials
Check out Green Trails Maps for directions. Map for this week's trip is 269S . Click link below for complete list of maps.http:// http://greentrailsmaps.com/maps/index_Map_wa/
Photo below is of Mowich Lake-this is where trail starts
Photo below is of Spray Falls
Photo below are the  flowers in Spray Park
Photo below are Avalanche Lilies in the Park
Photo below is of Hessong Rock from Spray Park


Driving directions: From Enumclaw drive  west on State Route 410 to Buckley. Turn Left (south) onto SR 165 and proceed through Carbonado. Just beyond the Carbon River Gorge bridge, bear right onto Mowich Lake Road. Follow the road about 17 miles to its end; the trailhead is at the far end of the Mowich Lake Campground.

Trail stats:  7.5 miles roundtrip with a 1600 elevation gain. High point 6400 feet.

Extended Weather Cascades

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Issued Wednesday 8-22-2012
There will be some cooling over the region during the next several days and chance of some mountain showers on this Thursday and Friday. Then some warming over this weekend followed by chance of showers early next week 8-27 and 8-28. The extended models bring some warming and dry conditions by September 1. The map below indicates this dry pattern for 9-1 with a strong ridge of high pressure.

KUOW Hike of the Week- Burroughs

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Updated Tuesday 8-28-2012
This hike is started at Sunrise Visitor Center Mt Rainier National Park.
All photos by Maria Lamarca Anderson and you can view all of her photos of this hike  on facebook.http://https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.455840097781884.109401.100000676939214&type=3&l=5168be79fc >

Photo below is from Burroughs Mountain of Mt. Rainier up front and close
Green Trails Maps- One of the 10 essentials
Check out Green Trails Maps for directions. Map for this week's trip is 269S . Click link below for complete list of maps.http:// http://greentrailsmaps.com/maps/index_Map_wa/
Photo below is the moonscape type of landscape found
Photo below is of momma goat and baby- keep distance
Photo below is of Frozen Lake
Photo below is sun is starting to set
Driving Directions: From Enumclaw, drive east 43 miles on State Route 410 to the Mount Rainier National Park White River Entrance. Go up to the Sunrise Road and and park at the large parking lot and visitor center.

Trail Stats: 7.4 miles roundtrip and 1000 foot gain.Directions are our best estimates. Please use map and compass and or GPS.

Do not feed animals
If you encounter a goat here are some suggestionshttp:// http://www.wta.org/signpost/mountain-goat-basics-give-the-goat-the-trail-1 >

Extended Weather Cascades WA

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Issued Wednesday 8-29-2012
Forecast models keep a ridge of high pressure over the region through September 11, 2012. There will be some weak weather systems that try to move in and when they do any precipitation will be limited. The 500 mb map below (18,000 feet) confirms this pattern as a ridge of high pressure is over the region. The map is the mean position of the ridge during early September.

KUOW Hike- Bullion Basin

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Update Tuesday 9-4-2012
This hike starts off at Crystal Mountain Ski area. Since no snow some great hikes.Photos by Karen Sykes and Dennis Long.

View of Mt. Adams from the Pacific Crest Trail. Most of this week will offer great views based on current weather forecast.

Green Trails Maps- One of the 10 essentials
Check out Green Trails Maps for directions. Map for this week's trip is 269S . Click link below for complete list of maps.http:// http://greentrailsmaps.com/maps/index_Map_wa/
Lots of flowers still out- Paintbrush and Pearly everlasting @Sykes
Photo below in hiking from Bullion Basin now on Crest trail @Sykes
Photo below is lazy hikers or hikers resting @Long
Photo below is Henskin Lake @Sykes
Driving Directions: From Enumclaw drive east on State Route 410 about 34 miles and turn left (east) onto Crystal Mountain Road (Forest Road 7190) leading to the Crystal Mountain Ski Area. Drive about 5 miles to the end of the road and trailhead is on the left of the upper lot. You can drive a little closer to trail -see map but this is the easiest way.
Trail Stats: 7 miles roundtip and 1500 gain. Start up trail 1156 (Bullion Basin) take this 2.2 miles to the Crest Trail (2000 trail number). Go right (south) and hike about 2 miles to Bear Gap. Then take trail 1193 west to Henskin Lake. Finally, right on 1192 north back to Bullion Basin Trail 1156 and back to ski area and your car.

Driving directions and trail stats are our best estimates. Please bring map-compass-GPS

Why a heat wave may slow down the Cle Elum fire

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Wed Morning Update:  The pressure differences across the mountains have weakened and the winds of Ellensburg have died down.  Temperatures there are roughly 10F cooler than yesterday this morning, due to the light winds (less mixing of warm air down to the surface).  This situation should stop the explosive growth and restrain the westward movement of the fire, but it will still be hot today.


Smoke has filled much of the Northwest today, and we didn''t need any Asian smoke to assist.  The latest MODIS satellite image shows a huge quantity of smoke over California and southern Oregon from local wildfires, and, of course, there is the rapidly growing Taylor Bridge fire between Yakima and Ellensburg (see below).  This fire grew explosively during the past 24-h and now encompasses more than 25,000 acres.  A big part of the problem has been the winds...which have gusted to 40-50 mph in places.


Here is close up of the Cle Elum/Ellensburg area...you can see the smoke...although it is a bit subtle.


Why did it explode so quickly and why am I hopeful that the driving winds will eventually decline?

The Cle Elum to Ellensburg area, as most of you know, is a very windy corridor during much of the warm season.  It is downwind a major weakness in the Cascades that meteorologists often call the Stampede Gap.   During a normal summer day, when high pressure dominates the eastern Pacific and lower pressure is inland, westerly winds can blow quite powerfully through the Stampede Gap into Cle Elum and down into Ellensburg.  That is why there are so many wind turbines there.  But the problem is that IF a fire gets started that winds can cause them to spread rapidly and explosively...and unfortunately that has happened.  In some ways, this is one of the WORST places to have a fire because of the strong gap winds of the area.

 Here is the pressure and winds of the past two days for around 5 PM.  Classic westerly wind pattern.



Take a look at the surface (actually 30 ft) winds from the UW WRF model for 5 PM today.  You can see the strong winds in the Stampede Gap and downstream.

 The winds at the Ellensburg Airport came up yesterday and are still quite strong:

Ellensburg Sustained Winds

Ellensburg Gusts

But I am hopeful the winds will weaken around the fire, giving the fire folks a chance to bring it under control.  Why?  Because of the upcoming western Washington heat wave!   A thermal trough will move up the coast and will result in a weakening and then reversal of the pressure gradient.  Here are the forecast maps for the next two days at 5 PM to show you what should happen:


Beautiful thermal troughs and a big warm up for the west side.  Low pressure moves to the west side of the mountains!  As a result, the westerly winds will end overnight, being replaced by weak easterlies.   Hopefully, that will enable the firefighters to get this explosive blaze under control.

Orcas Island Talk on August 29th

I will be giving a talk: Global Warming, Separating Truth from Hype at 5:30 PM on August 29th at the Orcas Center Madrona Room.

Can a major wildfire occur west of the Cascade crest?

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 Friday AM Update: Weather-Related Fire Threat this Weekend

Once the new runs come this morning, I will talk about the threat of lightning and strong winds returning to Kittitas County (Cle-Elum to Ellensburg).   Talked about it on KPLU this morning (9AM on air or on KPLU.ORG after 9:30 AM)


As our hearts go out to the people who have lost their homes, businesses, and animals in the Taylor Bridge fire near Cle Elum and Thorp, the natural question for west-side residents is:  could it happen here?  Could a major fire strike the region west of the Cascade crest?

The short answer is yes...it not only can happen but HAS happened, particularly along the western slopes of the Cascades.

The reality of this is brought home by the release today by the National Weather Service of a RED FLAG Warning for some parts of western Washington and Oregon (see graphic).  This is exceedingly rare.


Perhaps the most well known west-side fire is the famous Yacolt Burn of Sept. 11-13, 1902, the largest forest fire in Washington state history, which burned 238,920 acres -- more than 370 square miles -- and killed 38 people in Clark, Cowlitz, and Skamania counties.

Results of the Yacolt Burn

Fanned by strong, dry easterly winds, the fire traveled 30 miles in 36 hours.  A half-inch of ash covered Portland and the smoke was so thick that street lights went on mid-day in Seattle.  Here is a (poor) map the the Yacolt Burn area.

Then there was the great Tillamook Burn...a series of four fires in the old-growth forecasts along the northern Oregon coast range that destroyed a total of 355,000 acres during the period of 1933-1951.

Tillamook Burn

And in 1951 there was the famous Forks Fire that burned an area approximately 20 miles long and 2-1/2 miles wide, covering 32,668 acres.  Fanned by strong easterly winds, the fire moved 18 miles in eight hours.  You can see a repeated issue here for western Washington/Oregon fires...they tend to be associated with strong easterly winds and can move fast...real fast.  And most follow periods of both hot weather and drought.

Recently, I read a paper by Hemstrom and Franklin (Quaternary Journal, 1982) in which they talked about the role of big fires at Mount Rainier Park.  Looking a tree rings and other evidence, they determined that natural big fires cause trees to be replaced roughly every 430 years in the park.   The largest and oldest big fire occurred around 1230 AD and interestingly some of the oldest stands of trees in the the park date to that fire.   A place with very old trees is one of my favorite Rainier locations:  the Grove of the Patriarchs  near Ohanepecosh, which were protected by surrounding water.  Some of the trees there are over a 1,000 years old.

Surrounding rivers helped protect the Grove of the Patriarch from fire.

Fire has become a more serious threat, and global warming, although contributing, may not be the biggest issue.   We have poorly managed our forests, particularly on the drier, eastern slopes--stopping natural fires and letting the forest grow too dense.  And people have moved their homes up into the forest zone, in locations that are naturally and regularly visited by fire.  Fire is an important part of forest and grassland ecosystems in many locations.   We should not forget that.  And we should not forget that although we live in an area with very wet winters, our summers are some of the driest in the country.  There has been little rain during the past three weeks...and that is not unusual at all.

For those of you like probcast, it can be found at:
http://probcast.washington.edu/