24 Haziran 2012 Pazar

Understanding Ellensburg's Wind

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As we move into the late May and June regime of low clouds (a.k.a. June gloom), experienced west side residents know that crossing the Cascades--east of Cle Elum and down into Ellensburg-- can bring welcome sun.  A fancy resort, Suncadia, has been built for sun-starved travelers in Cle Elum, and even more sun can be found if you descend I-90 to Ellensburg and Vantage.  Even Knute Berger, the old mossback, recommends Cle Elum sun in a recent Crosscut piece.

But there is problem.   During just the days when the east-side offers the brightest contrast to the dreary west, westerly winds descend into the Kittitas Valley, causing the stretch from Cle Elum to Vantage to become a wind tunnel, with sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts that sometimes hit 50. 

Some folks say that in Ellensburg there is only one four letter word best for cussing: WIND.  And the Ellensburg Safeway has a unique wind measuring devise for their customers.


Now I have enjoyed the Suncadia resort in Cle Elum a few times, but it is sufficiently exposed to the westerly winds that the extensive golf courses are perhaps a bit more of a challenge than novice golfers might have reckoned with.  The golf pro at Suncadia is highly in demand for this insightful lessons in avoiding wind-driven hooks or slices.  Here is a sample (click on picture) that was sent to me by a local golf enthusiast.  Listen to his detailed instructions on the proper swing for windy conditions:


Strong westerly winds are found in this region when there is a large pressure difference across the Cascades, with higher pressure to the west.  Such a large pressure different in most prevalent in the spring and summer.  Why?  In spring high pressure builds northward in the eastern Pacific, while the warming of the interior of eastern Washington leads to pressure falls, since warm air is less dense than cold air.  To illustrate this pressure pattern, here is a 12-h pressure forecast valid 5 PM last Friday, a day when the winds were quite strong in Ellensburg and vicinity:


Air looks for the easiest path across the Cascades, and the Snoqualmie/Stampede Pass complex is the lowest route across (roughly 3000ft) north of the Columbia Gorge.  Cool, cloudy days with strong onshore flow are often associated with high pressure in the west---that can juice the pressure difference and the winds.

Spring and early summer are the best times for strong winds moving into the Kittitas Valley and thus the period of best wind energy potential for the many wind turbines in the area.   Unfortunately, this is the period of greatest snowmelt, streamflow, and hydropower potential--leading to contention between these two sources of clean energy.  Why contention?   Lack of energy transmission capability.  I wish some of the stimulus money could have been used to fix this deficiency.

The UW ultra-high resolution WRF forecasts do a pretty good job in simulating the strong winds along the eastern slopes of the Cascades...here is a sample (the shading shows the sustained wind speed) and the brown lines are sea level pressure.  You will note that the region from Leavenworth to Wenatchee get some winds too..they are downwind of the Stevens Pass gap...a lesser one. 

The strongest winds are often east of Ellensburg on Whiskey Dick mountain--the ridge on which Puget Sound Energy has placed their Wild Horse Wind farm. Very nice visitor center there if you want to visit.  Want sun and no wind?  No problem.  Drive down to Vantage and head north towards Quincy....the winds are less there.


Let me end with a plot of the sustained winds at Ellensburg during the past six months...they can get strong winds any time of the year...but you see the increase around March 1 and the beginning of the spring pressure patterns.

Memorial Day Weekend Outlook

No major storms.Friday and Saturday will be sunny and seasonably warm (60s).Clouds and a few sprinkles on Sunday and Monday-highs around 60.




Summer Squall

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Yesterday (Saturday) the area experienced an event more common to the eastern U.S.:  a summer convective squall.

Forced by an short-wave trough aloft that was moving northward, the action occurred around noon to 3 PM, as the fast moving line of convection brought heavy rain, lightning/thunder to some, and winds gusting up to around 40 mph on the east side of Puget Sound. Roughly 10,000 customers lost power, including 6,000 customers in Mukilteo, Monroe and Granite Falls served by Snohomish County PUD and a number of trees were downed including one on I5 (see picture above).  The raindrops was far bigger than normal, a sign of the convective origin of the rain...and the top of the thunderstorms exceeded 25,000 ft...very high for western WA but wimpy back east.

The Granite Falls area got hit particularly hard.  Here is a very professional video on the storm by Mark Horner (click on image to view)



Here is the radar sequence, and keep in mind the red indicates POURING rain or hail.
At 11:19 AM...showers were south of Seattle and moving north.  Some yellows (moderate rain)

At 12:09 PM, the squall line was evident...see the line of red colors.  My gutters were overflowing at that time!  The line was more intense east of Puget Sound.

 At 1:21 PM, the squall line had moved north of Everett, with moderate precipitation behind.
 At 2:35 PM it was the turn of Bellingham and vicinity, while the rain was over in Seattle.


This band extended across the Cascades into eastern Washington.  You can see that by following a sequence of images showing the lightning at 11:30 AM, 1 PM, AND 3 PM.  The lightning was pretty much limited to the eastern portion of western WA, the Cascades, and eastern WA.






Here is what happened when the line passed the UW (where it was only of moderate strength).   Winds gusted to 25 knots (around 30 mph), precipitation picked up, temperature fell from the low 60s to the low 50s, and pressure abruptly increased and then steadily rose after that.

Although the forecast was for showers yesterday, the strength and timing of this particular feature was not well forecast...which is not surprising.  Here is the UW model precipitation forecasts for Saturday (staring 5 AM Saturday morning)--it thought a fairly strong line would occurred...but the timing was hours too late. 




23 Haziran 2012 Cumartesi

Understanding Ellensburg's Wind

To contact us Click HERE
As we move into the late May and June regime of low clouds (a.k.a. June gloom), experienced west side residents know that crossing the Cascades--east of Cle Elum and down into Ellensburg-- can bring welcome sun.  A fancy resort, Suncadia, has been built for sun-starved travelers in Cle Elum, and even more sun can be found if you descend I-90 to Ellensburg and Vantage.  Even Knute Berger, the old mossback, recommends Cle Elum sun in a recent Crosscut piece.

But there is problem.   During just the days when the east-side offers the brightest contrast to the dreary west, westerly winds descend into the Kittitas Valley, causing the stretch from Cle Elum to Vantage to become a wind tunnel, with sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts that sometimes hit 50. 

Some folks say that in Ellensburg there is only one four letter word best for cussing: WIND.  And the Ellensburg Safeway has a unique wind measuring devise for their customers.


Now I have enjoyed the Suncadia resort in Cle Elum a few times, but it is sufficiently exposed to the westerly winds that the extensive golf courses are perhaps a bit more of a challenge than novice golfers might have reckoned with.  The golf pro at Suncadia is highly in demand for this insightful lessons in avoiding wind-driven hooks or slices.  Here is a sample (click on picture) that was sent to me by a local golf enthusiast.  Listen to his detailed instructions on the proper swing for windy conditions:


Strong westerly winds are found in this region when there is a large pressure difference across the Cascades, with higher pressure to the west.  Such a large pressure different in most prevalent in the spring and summer.  Why?  In spring high pressure builds northward in the eastern Pacific, while the warming of the interior of eastern Washington leads to pressure falls, since warm air is less dense than cold air.  To illustrate this pressure pattern, here is a 12-h pressure forecast valid 5 PM last Friday, a day when the winds were quite strong in Ellensburg and vicinity:


Air looks for the easiest path across the Cascades, and the Snoqualmie/Stampede Pass complex is the lowest route across (roughly 3000ft) north of the Columbia Gorge.  Cool, cloudy days with strong onshore flow are often associated with high pressure in the west---that can juice the pressure difference and the winds.

Spring and early summer are the best times for strong winds moving into the Kittitas Valley and thus the period of best wind energy potential for the many wind turbines in the area.   Unfortunately, this is the period of greatest snowmelt, streamflow, and hydropower potential--leading to contention between these two sources of clean energy.  Why contention?   Lack of energy transmission capability.  I wish some of the stimulus money could have been used to fix this deficiency.

The UW ultra-high resolution WRF forecasts do a pretty good job in simulating the strong winds along the eastern slopes of the Cascades...here is a sample (the shading shows the sustained wind speed) and the brown lines are sea level pressure.  You will note that the region from Leavenworth to Wenatchee get some winds too..they are downwind of the Stevens Pass gap...a lesser one. 

The strongest winds are often east of Ellensburg on Whiskey Dick mountain--the ridge on which Puget Sound Energy has placed their Wild Horse Wind farm. Very nice visitor center there if you want to visit.  Want sun and no wind?  No problem.  Drive down to Vantage and head north towards Quincy....the winds are less there.


Let me end with a plot of the sustained winds at Ellensburg during the past six months...they can get strong winds any time of the year...but you see the increase around March 1 and the beginning of the spring pressure patterns.

Memorial Day Weekend Outlook

No major storms.Friday and Saturday will be sunny and seasonably warm (60s).Clouds and a few sprinkles on Sunday and Monday-highs around 60.




Wet Day and Hard Forecast

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It was quite wet today over much of western Washington as a SE-NW band of precipitation set up residence across the region for hours.   Major contrasts too: from over 1.5 inches to a few hundredths.

Take a look at the precipitation map for the 24h ending 9 PM.  The dark green indicate more than an inch, while the whites are less than .1.  Amazing gradients...a few tenths in eastern WA.  Huge variation across the Sound ranging from 1-1.5 over the eastside to a few tenths over Kitsap...not the normal situation!  Even less on the coast.  The highest I spotted was 1.73 inches at Woods Creek NE of Monroe.


Here is a radar image for mid-afternoon....this was the story for four to six hours this afternoon

The yellows are moderate to heavy rain.

The origin of the precipitation was a very strong low off our coast that caused persistent southerly and southeasterly flow over our region--with bands of clouds and precipitation rotating around it...here is the upper level flow late this afternoon...the low is very strong for this time of the year.  This feature is not moving anywhere fast.
This is a VERY unusual situation.  Here is the 500 hPa forecast for tomorrow (solid lines) and what is known as the standardized anomaly....in standard deviations.  You see we are at least out four standard deviations...this pattern occurs only once  in 15,787 times...very, very rare.


  Here is a satellite picture showing you the moisture rotation around the low.  You can see the bands caught up in the flow..mainly on the eastern side of the low where there is upward motion.

These are very hard situations to forecast well...yes, we knew it was going to rain, but correctly defining and timing these bands is extremely difficult more than 6 hours ahead of time.   One day.

Looks like a another band will swing through later tonight....well, at least you don't have to water your garden this weekend.

Coal Train Help:   As I mentioned in a previous blog, a group of us would like to take observations around a few coal trains.   Does anyone know how frequently they pass through Seattle (I believe they are only full northbound)?  Are there more on certain days of the week?  Is there any way to know when one is coming a hour or so ahead of time?   Perhaps one of you living near a rail line might have some insights into this.


Saturday morning update

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Looks like most of the precipitation has shifted south towards Portland and southwest Washington---their turn.  The model predict that precipitation will move north later today, so if you are in Tacoma northward, NOW is good time to get outside. Sunday looks better.


For those interested in the amounts of precipitation we have received, here is the 24 h amounts (ending 7 AM) from the cocorahs (volunteer) network.  You can see the band of high precipitation values (orange color) that stretched from Issaquah, through north Seattle, towards NW WA. 


Or if you prefer, the precipitation shown on the NWS site.


Correction:  there were some minor records broken yesterday.  NWS message this AM:

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.62 INCHES WAS SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WAAIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.46 SET IN 1993....RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT SEATTLE WA WFO...A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.91 INCHES WAS SET AT SEATTLE WA WFOYESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.46 SET IN 2005.
 
For some reason this did not get to the national records site at NCDC. 

KUOW Hike of the Week- Triple Crown

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Updated Tuesday 6-26-2012
Three short hikes near Snoqualmie Falls and you can accomphish this hard feat- the triple crown. Perfect time to take kids and or out of town guests to check falls out, it is roaring now from snowmelt.


Photo below is view from next to Snoqualmie Falls Park/Salish Lodage

Check out Green Trails Maps for directions. Map for this week's trip is 205S and 206S. Click link below for complete list of maps.http:// http://greentrailsmaps.com/maps/index_Map_wa/

Part one of triple crown- Snoqualmie Falls Trail

Photo below is easy hike on the forest trail
Photo below is of lodge and falls from Snoq. Falls Trail
Take break at Snoqualmie Falls Park

Photo below is from Snoqualmie Falls Park
Photo below is from Snoqualmie Falls Park
Photo below is the Attic at Salish lodge-what to order?
Part two of triple crown- Little Si

Hike in the forest on way up
Photo below is view of Fuller Mt
Photo below is view from the top
Part three of the triple crown- Rattlesnake Ledge
Directions to Part 1- Snoqualmie Falls/Preston TrailFrom Seattle Drive I-90 east and get off at Preston exit and turn left. Follow this road (Preston-Fall City Rd) north and go about 3.9 miles towards Fall City and turn right on Lake Alice Road. Go 0.8 miles to parking lot for Preston-Snoqualime Trail. Hike the one way 1.9 miles to Snoqualmie Falls Viewpoint. This is King County Park and you do not need any permits. Green Trails Map 205S
Directions To Snoqualmie Falls Park-Salish LodgeTake Lake Alice Rd back to Preston-Fall City Rd and turn right go a short distance and go through Fall City and then turn right (east) onto Washington 202 (SE Fall City Snoqualmie Rd) go east about 6 miles and the Falls is on the right. Green Trails Map 205S. No permit needed this park is owned by Puget Sound Energy.
Directions to part 2- Little Si
From Falls go back on Washington 202 and go east go through town of Snoqualmie and continue towards town of North Bend and go through North Bend (mileage about 5 miles). Then turn left on Mt Si Road. Go less than 1/2 to trailhead on left and need Discover Pass. Green Trails Map 206S. Hike is a total 5 miles roundtrip and 1200 feet gain.
Directions to part 3- Rattlesnake LedgeFrom Mt Si road turn left on North Bend Way (Washington 202) and go .50 mile to the first right which is 436 SE and follow this (about 4 miles) as this will become Cedar Falls Rd SE and Rattlesnake State Park is on right this is Green Trails Maps 205S. Hike to Rattlesnake Ledge is a total 4 miles roundtrip and 1160 feet gain.

21 Haziran 2012 Perşembe

Understanding Ellensburg's Wind

To contact us Click HERE
As we move into the late May and June regime of low clouds (a.k.a. June gloom), experienced west side residents know that crossing the Cascades--east of Cle Elum and down into Ellensburg-- can bring welcome sun.  A fancy resort, Suncadia, has been built for sun-starved travelers in Cle Elum, and even more sun can be found if you descend I-90 to Ellensburg and Vantage.  Even Knute Berger, the old mossback, recommends Cle Elum sun in a recent Crosscut piece.

But there is problem.   During just the days when the east-side offers the brightest contrast to the dreary west, westerly winds descend into the Kittitas Valley, causing the stretch from Cle Elum to Vantage to become a wind tunnel, with sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts that sometimes hit 50. 

Some folks say that in Ellensburg there is only one four letter word best for cussing: WIND.  And the Ellensburg Safeway has a unique wind measuring devise for their customers.


Now I have enjoyed the Suncadia resort in Cle Elum a few times, but it is sufficiently exposed to the westerly winds that the extensive golf courses are perhaps a bit more of a challenge than novice golfers might have reckoned with.  The golf pro at Suncadia is highly in demand for this insightful lessons in avoiding wind-driven hooks or slices.  Here is a sample (click on picture) that was sent to me by a local golf enthusiast.  Listen to his detailed instructions on the proper swing for windy conditions:


Strong westerly winds are found in this region when there is a large pressure difference across the Cascades, with higher pressure to the west.  Such a large pressure different in most prevalent in the spring and summer.  Why?  In spring high pressure builds northward in the eastern Pacific, while the warming of the interior of eastern Washington leads to pressure falls, since warm air is less dense than cold air.  To illustrate this pressure pattern, here is a 12-h pressure forecast valid 5 PM last Friday, a day when the winds were quite strong in Ellensburg and vicinity:


Air looks for the easiest path across the Cascades, and the Snoqualmie/Stampede Pass complex is the lowest route across (roughly 3000ft) north of the Columbia Gorge.  Cool, cloudy days with strong onshore flow are often associated with high pressure in the west---that can juice the pressure difference and the winds.

Spring and early summer are the best times for strong winds moving into the Kittitas Valley and thus the period of best wind energy potential for the many wind turbines in the area.   Unfortunately, this is the period of greatest snowmelt, streamflow, and hydropower potential--leading to contention between these two sources of clean energy.  Why contention?   Lack of energy transmission capability.  I wish some of the stimulus money could have been used to fix this deficiency.

The UW ultra-high resolution WRF forecasts do a pretty good job in simulating the strong winds along the eastern slopes of the Cascades...here is a sample (the shading shows the sustained wind speed) and the brown lines are sea level pressure.  You will note that the region from Leavenworth to Wenatchee get some winds too..they are downwind of the Stevens Pass gap...a lesser one. 

The strongest winds are often east of Ellensburg on Whiskey Dick mountain--the ridge on which Puget Sound Energy has placed their Wild Horse Wind farm. Very nice visitor center there if you want to visit.  Want sun and no wind?  No problem.  Drive down to Vantage and head north towards Quincy....the winds are less there.


Let me end with a plot of the sustained winds at Ellensburg during the past six months...they can get strong winds any time of the year...but you see the increase around March 1 and the beginning of the spring pressure patterns.

Memorial Day Weekend Outlook

No major storms.Friday and Saturday will be sunny and seasonably warm (60s).Clouds and a few sprinkles on Sunday and Monday-highs around 60.