Lewis and Clarke's Big Mistake?

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In December 1805, after making the first transcontinental land crossing by white man, Lewis and Clark decided to overwinter at a location south of present day Astoria (see letter A on map).

They called their collection of log buildings, Fort Clatsop, and remained there until late March 1806 (see artist rendering).

Unfortunately, they learned rapidly that they had picked one of wettest, dampest lowland places in North America, with plenty of wind to make things even more unpleasant  They were miserable, as their comments on December 16, 1805 made clear: 
 "The rain continues, with Tremendious gusts of wind. The winds violent.   Trees falling in every direction, whorl winds, with gusts of rain.    Hail & Thunder, This kind of weather lasted all day, Certainly one of the worst days that ever was!" 
Frequent comments included: "we are all wet and disagreeable," "cold and a dreadful day," and, "the rain continued as usual" 
If only they had a meteorologist with them!  Consider the Oregon annual rainfall map (see image).  They had camped in a location that receives about 100 inches a year, most of it falling during the midwinter period in which they camped.  Not a good choice.  If only they had made camp near Portland, they could have found a location with roughly a third as much rain, and considerably less wind.  Of the 106 days the Corps of Discovery spent on the coast only twelve were free of rain and only six were sunny.   I suspect they knew they had picked a very wet location, but wanted to be near the ocean where they would have a chance to interact with a passing ship.  Perhaps they hoped for a ride to Hawaii.
And one more thing:  only a few miles from Fort Clatsop there is Cape Disappointment, the foggiest location in the lower 48 states, with 106 days of heavy fog a year.  So they were wet, fogged in, and we haven't have talked about the strong winter winds of the area.  Not your winter vacation spot.

Typical (foggy) conditions at Cape Disappointment

   

It's Snowing!

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Light snow has been observed at Bellingham, Shelton, Olympia, Chehalis, Vancouver (WA), and Portland.   The most snow apparent on regional cams is around Vancouver, WA:



The culprit: a weak disturbance moving southward down the coast and relatively cool air over the interior.

The latest radar shows the precipitation pattern.  On the coast, the precipitation is rain, and the interior stuff is quite light.  Seattle should stay dry, as should eastern Washington.  We do not have super cold air over us, but evaporative cooling is allowing the snow level to drop to the surface in some locations.

 Here is forecast surface chart for 10 AM this morning.  You can see the low (solid lines are pressure) off the southern WA coast, and the temperatures (at around 2500 ft, shown by shading) indicated the cold air over eastern Washington and cool air over the western WA lowlands.

 This is NOT going to be big snow event.  Here is the model forecast from this morning, showing the 24-h total snowfall prediction over the region.  Not more than about 1-2 inches in the most favored zones.  Nothing over the Seattle Metro area (sorry, Jim Forman).  Portland gets some white stuff.

But one piece of good news...after this low moves south of us, expect a lot of sun on Tuesday.   New Year's will start on a bright foot...an excellent omen for the new year.

The Coldest Day of the Year

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Today, January 3, is climatologically the COLDEST DAY OF THE YEAR in Seattle (actually the airport).  Here is the proof, based on the period 1948-2012.  The average maximum temperature drops to 43F and the minimum temperature to 33.  Then then warming begins!

Seattle Climatological Data

For Portland, the situation is similar, but not quite as crisp:  the lowest minimum temperatures (33F) are during the next few days, and the lowest maximum temperature (44) occurs through January 11th. 

Portland Airport

Similar story for eastern Washington...check out the Spokane Airport. The average max bottoms out at 32F during the next week or so, and the minimum hits its low on Saturday.

Spokane Airport

So we now at or close to the bottom for temperature, Thus, here in the Northwest our lowest temperatures are approximately two weeks after the winter solstice, (December 21) when the warming radiation from the sun is least and the days are shortest.   Interestingly, in the summer there is a much longer lag between the maximum solar radiation on the summer solstice (June 21) and our warmest temperatures (early August). Clearly, solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere is not the only story for surface temperatures-weather systems and clouds play a role as well.  For example, in summer we have lots of low clouds and onshore flow in June and early July that slows the warming.

Talking of climatological records, December broke one: Seattle had 27 days of measurable precipitation last month, an ALL TIME RECORD for December.  The old record was 26 days.

There is now a large pressure difference across the Cascades, with high pressure entrenched over eastern Washington (see map) and an offshore trough approaching.  The result has been very strong

winds in the Gorge, with some  "favored" spots hitting 70-80 mph.  One of the windiest places is the Vista House at Crown Point, where recent gusts have hit 78 mph, with sustained winds in the 40+ mph range (see graphic).


Finally, lets end with something we have not seen in while...a nice sunset shot.  But this one had an added twist.   Taken from my department, here was a low level contrail from a jet that left a shadow on a higher cloud deck....its above the third tower on the left side of the photo.

Weather for Washington Cascades

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Updated 1-2-2013
Extended forecast models are suggesting that we have a weak ridge of high pressure in place through 1-15-2013 and this pattern we can expect to have slightly below normal mountain snowfall. Also temperatures will be sligthly below normal. Thus our snowpack which is close to 150% in many locations will remain close to that level and perhaps go close to 140% by the middle of the month. The map below (500 mb-18,000 feet), confirms this pattern with a ridge of high pressure off the West Coast.

Lewis and Clarke's Big Mistake?

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In December 1805, after making the first transcontinental land crossing by white man, Lewis and Clark decided to overwinter at a location south of present day Astoria (see letter A on map).

They called their collection of log buildings, Fort Clatsop, and remained there until late March 1806 (see artist rendering).

Unfortunately, they learned rapidly that they had picked one of wettest, dampest lowland places in North America, with plenty of wind to make things even more unpleasant  They were miserable, as their comments on December 16, 1805 made clear: 
 "The rain continues, with Tremendious gusts of wind. The winds violent.   Trees falling in every direction, whorl winds, with gusts of rain.    Hail & Thunder, This kind of weather lasted all day, Certainly one of the worst days that ever was!" 
Frequent comments included: "we are all wet and disagreeable," "cold and a dreadful day," and, "the rain continued as usual" 
If only they had a meteorologist with them!  Consider the Oregon annual rainfall map (see image).  They had camped in a location that receives about 100 inches a year, most of it falling during the midwinter period in which they camped.  Not a good choice.  If only they had made camp near Portland, they could have found a location with roughly a third as much rain, and considerably less wind.  Of the 106 days the Corps of Discovery spent on the coast only twelve were free of rain and only six were sunny.   I suspect they knew they had picked a very wet location, but wanted to be near the ocean where they would have a chance to interact with a passing ship.  Perhaps they hoped for a ride to Hawaii.
And one more thing:  only a few miles from Fort Clatsop there is Cape Disappointment, the foggiest location in the lower 48 states, with 106 days of heavy fog a year.  So they were wet, fogged in, and we haven't have talked about the strong winter winds of the area.  Not your winter vacation spot.

Typical (foggy) conditions at Cape Disappointment

   

It's Snowing!

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Light snow has been observed at Bellingham, Shelton, Olympia, Chehalis, Vancouver (WA), and Portland.   The most snow apparent on regional cams is around Vancouver, WA:



The culprit: a weak disturbance moving southward down the coast and relatively cool air over the interior.

The latest radar shows the precipitation pattern.  On the coast, the precipitation is rain, and the interior stuff is quite light.  Seattle should stay dry, as should eastern Washington.  We do not have super cold air over us, but evaporative cooling is allowing the snow level to drop to the surface in some locations.

 Here is forecast surface chart for 10 AM this morning.  You can see the low (solid lines are pressure) off the southern WA coast, and the temperatures (at around 2500 ft, shown by shading) indicated the cold air over eastern Washington and cool air over the western WA lowlands.

 This is NOT going to be big snow event.  Here is the model forecast from this morning, showing the 24-h total snowfall prediction over the region.  Not more than about 1-2 inches in the most favored zones.  Nothing over the Seattle Metro area (sorry, Jim Forman).  Portland gets some white stuff.

But one piece of good news...after this low moves south of us, expect a lot of sun on Tuesday.   New Year's will start on a bright foot...an excellent omen for the new year.

Lewis and Clarke's Big Mistake?

To contact us Click HERE
In December 1805, after making the first transcontinental land crossing by white man, Lewis and Clark decided to overwinter at a location south of present day Astoria (see letter A on map).

They called their collection of log buildings, Fort Clatsop, and remained there until late March 1806 (see artist rendering).

Unfortunately, they learned rapidly that they had picked one of wettest, dampest lowland places in North America, with plenty of wind to make things even more unpleasant  They were miserable, as their comments on December 16, 1805 made clear: 
 "The rain continues, with Tremendious gusts of wind. The winds violent.   Trees falling in every direction, whorl winds, with gusts of rain.    Hail & Thunder, This kind of weather lasted all day, Certainly one of the worst days that ever was!" 
Frequent comments included: "we are all wet and disagreeable," "cold and a dreadful day," and, "the rain continued as usual" 
If only they had a meteorologist with them!  Consider the Oregon annual rainfall map (see image).  They had camped in a location that receives about 100 inches a year, most of it falling during the midwinter period in which they camped.  Not a good choice.  If only they had made camp near Portland, they could have found a location with roughly a third as much rain, and considerably less wind.  Of the 106 days the Corps of Discovery spent on the coast only twelve were free of rain and only six were sunny.   I suspect they knew they had picked a very wet location, but wanted to be near the ocean where they would have a chance to interact with a passing ship.  Perhaps they hoped for a ride to Hawaii.
And one more thing:  only a few miles from Fort Clatsop there is Cape Disappointment, the foggiest location in the lower 48 states, with 106 days of heavy fog a year.  So they were wet, fogged in, and we haven't have talked about the strong winter winds of the area.  Not your winter vacation spot.

Typical (foggy) conditions at Cape Disappointment

   

It's Snowing!

To contact us Click HERE
Light snow has been observed at Bellingham, Shelton, Olympia, Chehalis, Vancouver (WA), and Portland.   The most snow apparent on regional cams is around Vancouver, WA:



The culprit: a weak disturbance moving southward down the coast and relatively cool air over the interior.

The latest radar shows the precipitation pattern.  On the coast, the precipitation is rain, and the interior stuff is quite light.  Seattle should stay dry, as should eastern Washington.  We do not have super cold air over us, but evaporative cooling is allowing the snow level to drop to the surface in some locations.

 Here is forecast surface chart for 10 AM this morning.  You can see the low (solid lines are pressure) off the southern WA coast, and the temperatures (at around 2500 ft, shown by shading) indicated the cold air over eastern Washington and cool air over the western WA lowlands.

 This is NOT going to be big snow event.  Here is the model forecast from this morning, showing the 24-h total snowfall prediction over the region.  Not more than about 1-2 inches in the most favored zones.  Nothing over the Seattle Metro area (sorry, Jim Forman).  Portland gets some white stuff.

But one piece of good news...after this low moves south of us, expect a lot of sun on Tuesday.   New Year's will start on a bright foot...an excellent omen for the new year.

Darkness and Now Redemption

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Folks have been complaining that last month (December has 2012) was one of the worst in memory.  Dark, wet, and dark again.   But was this our imagination?   Let us cast light on this darkness!

Let's begin by examining a plot of cumulative solar radiation on my department's roof since the beginning of December through the end of the month (the numbers on the bottom are the number of hours into the month).  This is a measure of the total solar radiation you could have soaked up at any point in the month.  The black line is for December 2012  and red is normal (past 13 year average).  For the first few days we were getting normal sun, but then we started falling behind more and more. Yes my friends it was darker much than normal.

But we can go further.   December 2012 is tied for darkest December with December 2007. So December 2012 was as bad as we have seen during this century!  That is enough to give nearly anyone a bad case of SAD (Seasonal Affective Disorder) and turn on their interior floodlights.
But there bright, lustrous` news..today January 1 is virtually clear over much of western Washington and Oregon.   Don't believe me?  Look outside or check out the latest image from my department's web cam looking towards Mt. Rainier.

Some of you near the water have some fog right now, but most of that will burn off. Only those in the fog/stratus laden basin of eastern Washington will be denied the sun's face.

The visible satellite picture Tuesday morning shows a cloudy eastern Washington and east-slope valleys.  Clear skies over the crest, western slopes, and most of the lowlands.  Only in the Chehalis and Willamette Valleys and the Strait can you see some shallow fog

 Believe it or not, tomorrow (Wed) will be sunny too.

A good way to start the New Year.  And a happy new year to all of you!